20 or 20% of their bankroll. K. Betfair International Plc is licensed and regulated by the . 50 ($1250 + $312. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. Julie Johnston ran on well in the closing stages, though, suggesting a return to form may be near, and that race has worked out well with the first and third both winning next time. Recent. Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for customers in the UK. The first of these is the probability of a positive outcome, or a winning trade. Monks Dream started at 150/1 and never figured on his debut in a big-field novice event at York on his debut in October, but he attracted. 00 being returned. The multiplier is normally set to 50%, for an aggressive betting strategy set it to 100%. They wanted me to figure out a way to compute the Kelly criterion (see below) as a means to exponentially increase their pool of money over repeated bets. I would describe it as the ability to spot and identify the very smallest details of a horse's performance in a race and correctly interpret the significance and. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. For any other Betfair-related queries, head to customer support. Based on the Kelly criterion, K% = (1 × 0. One was the 'square root' plan whereby a base bet is established, say $20, and each bet you place is $20 plus the square root of any. f = 0. Fixed Odds & Multiples bets are placed with PPB Counterparty Services Limited which is licensed and regulated by the Malta Gaming Authority. Subsequent to being distributed in 1956, the Kelly criterion was gotten rapidly by players who had the option to apply the formula to horse racing. The Kelly criterion is a formula that can be used to determine the optimal size of a bet. You have an employee stationed at the local racetrack. For example: I would like to bet at 20 matches what are playing at the same time. Wednesday - Windsor Castle: Back Barnwell Boy. The actual Kelly Standard: A serious Research Of your own Popular Staking Method – current horse racing odds. New show alert. She. com. B = 1 (decimal odds of 2. . function is to create the right balance between risk and reward. The formula has a number of applications, one of which is sports betting. Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets including 5/1 scorer tip and 5/1 Bet Builder at Stamford Bridge. WINNING ODDS In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a bet. 35 = 0. How to use the Kelly Criterion calculator. Already the winner of 17 races - including the Stewards' Cup in 2020 and the Group 3 Abernant Stakes in 2021 - Summerghand lines up here under a 5 lb penalty for his York effort and seems sure to. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing. The formula takes into account the probability of winning a bet, the odds of the bet, and the bettor’s bankroll size. For customers in the UK, TSE Malta LP is licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039561-R-319411-005. 82pts. 6 hours ago · He won over 7f from a mark of 73, but looked ahead of that mark with a dead straightforward performance. This value should be a number between 0 and 100. The formula was developed by Kelly while working at the AT&T Bell. 55)-0. Kelly’s base assumption that 100% of capital can be allocated to a single bet necessitates that the formula is naturally cautious when sizing a position that has potential loss. 5/2. It can also be a. What this means is that you should wager 10 units (or 10% of your bankroll) on this coin toss. In another example, you may have a perceived edge of 55% (0. She is currently rated 94 and 6/1 6. But on those occasions when you lose, you will lose your stake of $57. Mode 1: You know the true probability of an outcome and the soft bookmaker odds. But then the prices started. 31% of your bankroll on Real Madrid. Read the best French Horse Racing Tips here today. Finally, in x7 we give some numerical examples to illustrate the methods. 0:00 / 8:13 KELLY CRITERION | Ed Thorp | Optimal Position Sizing For Stock TradingThe Kelly Criterion calculation was created by Ed Thorp and made specifically to beat t. 40) / 1. The second is the total win loss ratio, which is made up of the total number of winning trades divided by the total number of losing trades. Kelly Criterion General Discussion : Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > General Discussion: Kelly Criterion. Kelly Criteria was developed in 1956 by John L. 20. 5/2. When we bet the amount that this formula indicates, we say that we are using the full Kelly Criterion . Monthly Breakdown. 45)/ (2. 0. In sports betting, this formula is used to decide the optimal amount of money to place in a bet. By three laps. 60) / 4 = 0. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 18/1 ex-pointer on rules debut at Stratford; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Lou to give us a gift in Thursday 13/1 Newcastle double. Kelly Jr. 89% of my bankroll on any race (still using the Pace of Horse factor). By using the Kelly Criterion, you can maximize your profits while minimizing your risk of ruin. This is a mathematical formula which tells you how much to bet in any given situation. For any other Betfair-related queries, head to customer support. Such an outcome may apply to blackjack and horse racing, but rarely to capital markets investments. However, you determine after your analysis that Horse A has a 25% chance of winning. to identify how to maximize the long-term growth rate of investments and has since been used successfully. Kelly´s theory is designed to maximize the growth of your bank roll (e. Cricket. Criterion has raced at Ascot-GB, Caulfield-AUS, Randwick-AUS, Flemington-AUS, Moonee Valley. Here are five tips to help you use the Kelly sports betting strategy more effectively. After getting published in 1956, the gambling community got wind of it and realized its prospects in the horse racing betting system. 25 so an edge of 25% divided by 1. Duhallow Tommy showed a fairly useful level of form in bumpers last season, opening his account in that sphere at the third attempt at Fontwell in January, and he. 1-p) The Kelly Criterion works by analyzing the probability of each horse winning the race and determining the optimal amount of money to bet on each horse. Golf. xh is the amount we will wager on horse h, Oh is the decimal payout odds for horse h, which we assume are fixed, and w is our current wealth. Using the Kelly Criterion, you can calculate the optimal bet size. The Kelly Criterion – also known as the Kelly Strategy or Kelly Staking Plan – takes elements from fixed, percentage and progressive staking to create somewhat of a hybrid staking plan. Timeform Radio Tips on Betfair. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 66/1 Jazzie to spring a surprise at Fairyhouse;. 5 which equals a stake of 16. From this calculation, if you were to bet on the Celtics to beat the Lakers, the Kelly Criterion suggests you should only bet 4% of your bankroll or capital. For any other Betfair-related queries, head to customer support. 00 – 1) f* =0. His original formulas dealt with long-distance telephone transmission signal to noise ratios. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, we can calculate the optimal fraction of your bankroll to bet as: f* = ( (2. s = b * (o / f. Patrick Weaver: "Bluestocking was beaten in a photo when favourite for a Listed race at Newbury. 5) – 60)/2) = 16% of your bank. Let us say that your horse (Let us call him Lucky Punter) gets 4/1 odds (or 5. Published in 1956, the Kelly Criterion was quickly adopted by gamblers for use in horse racing. 1. Team2 wins. Betfair, e-mail Copy@betfair. Racing. g. 24 on the Exchange have four decent horses. Monks Dream (Ire) Tim Easterby. 52x1 – 0. 00 – 1) f* =0. A ‘gambler with a private wire’ gets advanced word of the outcome of baseball games. The best staking plan debate. to identify how to maximize the long-term growth rate of investments and has since been used successfully. 5pt EW) settled at BSP: +5. The underlying purpose of the reviewed modifications is to mitigate the additional risk stemming from the unrealistic mathematical. Team2 wins. The online Kelly criterion calculator determines a recommended stake based on the prevailing odds and your estimated probability that the selection will win. Charlie Deutsch. The 20/1 21. For any queries relating to Betting. distributions are fi xed in advance. the optimal strategy for a single horse and gave an incomplete solution to the problem with. 5 Tips for Using the Kelly Criterion in Sports Betting. In his book Commonsense Betting, which is arguably the finest book written on the betting and the mathematics of horse-racing, US author Dick Mitchell wrote about various staking plans. The Kelly Staking Plan is based on using the ‘Kelly Constant’. com. Bets must settle before 23:59 on the day they're placed. Before addressing your. It can also be a. How to use the Kelly Criterion calculator. The Kelly Criterion is designed for value betting systems. O. If you bet more than 10%, you’re taking on too much risk. Read his column and bet with Betfair!Benjamin P. More Horse Racing. Horse racing tips from Beverley on Tuesday 11 May 2021. A. Download our free and easy-to-use Kelly Criterion Calculator by downloading this excel. Duhallow Tommy (Ire) 11st 9lbs. What Are Kelly Betting Systems?Four staking plans are compared: full-Kelly, half-Kelly, quarter-Kelly and eighth-Kelly. Betfair column. This is due to the requirement that the gambler commits to a specific outcome of the team game. A new formulation of the fractional Kelly strategy, which involves betting a fixed fraction of the amount suggested by the Kelly criterion, is also presented for this type of scenario. Abstract and Figures. Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets including 5/1 scorer tip and 5/1 Bet Builder at Stamford Bridge. Matej Uhrín, Gustav Šourek, Ondřej Hubáček, Filip Železný. A positive percentage implies an. Kelly betting or proportional betting is an application of information theory to investing and gambling. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: 9/4 Springwell Bay looks thrown in off 137 at Cheltenham Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Paddy Power Gold Cup can go to a closerHorse Racing Tips: One drifter and a chaser to back for 48/1 Monday double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Paul Nicholls' Ditcheat Diary: Daryl Jacob to ride Bravemansgame in Saturday's. We define the problem setting, the formal investment strategies and review their common modifications used in practice. Timeform's Andrew Asquith highlights a Nap, Next Best and Each-Way selection at Beverley on Thursday. 10 Ideas for Trifecta Profits (Part 1) The late Don Scott once wrote that the best form of exotic betting is the trifecta. Part of Kelly's insight was to have the gambler maximize the expectation of the logarithm of his capital, rather than the expected profit from each bet. The Kelly Criterion implies you should bet 22. Kelly Criterion mathematical equation takes into account your bankroll, your own calculated winning probability of the outcome you are betting on, and the odds available from the bookmaker. Kelly Criterion And Asset Management. 16 August 2023. Jacot. Venetia Williams. French Ligue 1. Therefore, as judged on the last 10 runnings of the race, a horse rated 149-150 is optimal. 55)-0. Soon after the paper was published the gambling community somehow came across it and found that it had potential as a perfect betting system for horse racing. Horse Racing Tips: Faith in Fanshawe's Willem for Wednesday 18/1 Kempton double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Ryan Moore: River Tiber holds leading claims in my Friday three; Horse Racing. It helps tells us the odds or likelihood of each outcome and helps us determine what size bet to place on each outcome. If the dice bias were less, at 53%, the Kelly criterion recommends staking 6%. 66. Four staking plans are compared: full-Kelly, half-Kelly, quarter-Kelly and eighth-Kelly. A race involves M horses, and is described by a normalized vector of winning probabilities p, an inverse-odds vector r and a gambler strategy b. a betting fund) over the long term by determining the optimal stake on a. Nick Mordin devoted a chapter to the Kelly Criterion in his book Winning Without Thinking, which also had the original paper in the appendix,. The second is the total win loss ratio, which is made up of the total number of winning trades divided by the total number of losing trades. 10. forms of gambling, including sports betting. The Real KC is very useful for outright betting as shown. This post will serve as the first of a series to discuss the Kelly criterion. Cheltenham Festival: Expert Betting Advice & Predictions for the 2023 Cheltenham: Cheltenham Races Tips Cheltenham Betting Offers Horse Racing Expert Tips & Advice. French Horse Racing Tips from the betting experts at betting. Following the Kelly criterion, the process of betting is closely connected to information theory (K elly Jr, 1956). In as vivid a display of a horse seizing defeat from the jaws of victory as one will ever see, Harper's Brook pulled himself up in front, slowing right down and allowing Gloire D'athon to beat him. The famous Kelly betting criterion (Kelly, 1956), which maximizes a logarithmic utility function, is widely used to choose s. Try out the Kelly Criterion Calculator below, but pay careful attention to heavy favorites (i. Cheltenham Festival: Expert Betting Advice & Predictions for the 2023 Cheltenham: Cheltenham Races Tips Cheltenham Betting Offers Horse Racing Expert Tips & Advice. For any queries relating to. Because of its theoretical advances in anticipating events and avoiding risks, the application of the Kelly Criterion in gambling spreads very quickly, such as the poker game blackjack in casinos and the popular horse racing and greyhound racing in Europe. When Morphettville first held racing in 1875, with the first race was won by a horse called “Red Gauntlet” owned by the Honourable Thomas Elder who had sold the land to the SAJC to create the Morphettville racecourse. The first is attributing probability to a positive outcome of a selected bet and the second is a win-loss calculation. 66% of your bank. Named after its inventor, John L. Get a better job. 10 Ideas for Trifecta Profits (Part 1) The late Don Scott once wrote that the best form of exotic betting is the trifecta. In Section 2 we define the concept of a betting strategy. Multiples 2021 to present: +20. On 40. This means that you. Kelly says that his edge is $0. It is. Kelly Criterion – Part 2 – Derivation. K. For the lone player betting on a single hand or horse, the Kelly formula demands guts and patience -- hence the controversy. For any other Betfair-related queries, head to customer support. Your bankroll is $1,000, and you wonder how much you should risk. This paper informative post shows the results of using Kelly criterion in a gamble of bidding T steps, and derives the relation of profits between using p and W/T as the winning probability in the Kelly formula, respectively. Through the use of the Kelly Criterion gamblers were able to maximize their bankrolls over the long term. Although it may appear confusing, it’s actually pretty simple. The Real Kelly) discussed in this @Pinnacle article The Real Kelly. With all the prior odds, the equation will add up to this: ( (4x 0. For any queries relating to Betting. România. Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for. 10. 45)/1=0. It was believed earlier that winning a bet is. Kelly betting can be applied to Blackjack with a high degree of certainty in the calculated probabilities. The Kelly Criterion (a. The bettingexpert Academy introduces you to advanced betting theory including calculating implied probability, the kelly criterion and predictive modelling. This post provides a simple derivation of the Kelly criterion, which will hopefully provide additional insight. The Kelly Criterion also works for horse race betting. Discover. He was sired by Sebring out of the Bite The Bullet mare Mica's Pride. So, our new starting bankroll is $1250, our new target profit equals $312. Venera. Horse racing - In-running; ↳ Bet Angel Automation - Horse racing - Pre off; ↳ Bet Angel Automation - General;Horse Racing Tips: Blackmore to get us rolling at Punchestown with Thursday multiple ;. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;Horse Racing Tips: One drifter and a chaser to back for 48/1 Monday double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Paul Nicholls' Ditcheat Diary: Daryl Jacob to ride Bravemansgame in Saturday's. If the dice bias were less, at 53%, the Kelly criterion recommends staking 6%. TBM incorporates Race Card data for UK/IRE Horse Racing and UK Greyhound Racing. 10st 9lbs. 71% of your capital, or $57. The Kelly Criterion is well-known among gamblers as a way to decide how much to bet when the odds are in your favor. The Kelly criterion is a useful tool for making informed decisions about how to allocate capital when betting on horse races, particularly when considering a single type of bet (Benter 1994) -most. Lose weight. 05 2/1 coming off second best to Pied Piper 4. 00 – 1) f* =0. 2022 Daily Racing Multiple Column singles to. Daryl Carter's Tips: Chepstow, Warwick and Kempton all. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: 4/1 Fry up some Ree Okka on Monday;. It helps tells us the odds or likelihood of each outcome and helps us determine what size bet to place on each outcome. Ahead of race day revisit some great memories and test your knowledge by taking the Betfair Chase Quiz. Featured Horse Racing. The most popular methodology for determining the optimal wager size is the Kelly Criterion. , a physicist and information theorist who worked at AT&T’s Bell Laboratories. ROI = -14. Golf. 52 Q = 1-0. Published in 1956, the Kelly Criterion was quickly adopted by gamblers for use in horse racing. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race; How to use Timeform Ratings;Get a Free £10 Bet - Every Day! From January 7-13, we are Doubling our Daily Rewards! Stake £20 on Multiples or Bet Builders over the course of a day, and, after the bets have settled, you'll. Generally, in gambling scenarios (and some investing scenarios), the Kelly strategy will do better than any other strategy in the long run. However, the Kelly. So if your getting 6/4 on an 1/1 shot your edge is 2. While this was formulated around table games, it is a concept that can be. "16", "name" => "Horse Racing". Betfair have enlisted the help of the experts at Timeform to bring you the best ante-post analysis for the 2021 Cheltenham Festival (March 16-19). It functions as an investment scale, balancing the equity between risk and reward. function is to create the right balance between risk and reward. Red Mile VP Sees Sports Betting as Boost for Kentucky Horse Racing. Cricket. k. For customers in the UK, TSE Malta LP is licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039561-R-319411-005. Knappers Hill (Paul Nicholls/Harry Cobden) Unbeaten in bumpers, including a Grade 2, and stretched unbeaten record to 5 with novice hurdle wins in. These two factors are then input into the Kelly Criterion equation. 40) / 1. Kelly betting systems are ones that use the Kelly criterion. Cricket. Fixed Odds & Multiples bets are placed with PPB Counterparty Services Limited which is licensed and regulated by the . 60 x 1. Jacot+1. Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for customers in the UK, licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039439-R-319330-007. You need to input the probability (according to your own assessment) that your selection will win. Now, if we return to the figures we already provided, the equation will look like this: ( (2 x 0. In horse racing, this is based on the player's own handicapping of the race. So if the chance of winning on a single bet is 80%, the bettor should wager 60% of one’s bankroll. betfair. 6%) but your estimate of the ‘true’ probability of the draw is 30%. Total Performance Data have recorded his max stride at 26. This mare beat Jima's Gold at Turfway Park back in February. a. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Gordon set for winners in Fontwell Saturday 8/1 double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 22/1 Bird. It’s ultimately designed to maximize profits and returns across sports betting and is becoming a staple for many when betting on soccer, NFL, and horse racing. The equation tells you exactly how much to bet on each “hand” so that you can survive to keep playing. Second, notice that betting just a tiny bit more than the Kelly criterion suggests leads to decreased profits with higher risk . The Kelly Criterion works by analyzing the probability of each horse winning the race and determining the optimal amount of money to bet on each horse. 60) / 2 = 0. 04. O. In this paper, we provide a new approach to apply-ing the Kelly criterion to stock market investments. Kelly Criterion And Asset Management. Kelly Criterion Horse Racing example. 2) From another angle. The worksheet tracks your bets and provides in-depth performance data as well as a profit graph. 16) of our free Excel betting tracker. Without this component, it is still possible to lose huge sums of money no matter how much research a bettor does. Add your expected win probability for the selection you have chosen in the cell called “Win Probability”, using values between 0% and 100%. Kelly Jr. Kelly’s work focused on optimizing information transmission over a noisy channel. evident from looking at the Kelly Criterion graph. The simplified Kelly Criterion has some potential flaws and can give some head-scratching results which are explained in the article above. Blackbow was ultimately only fifth in a two-mile-five-furlong handicap chase at the Dublin Racing Festival, but he looked set to make a much bigger impact for most of. where. By E. L. " 15:45. Cricket. The Kelly criterion is a money-management formula of passionate interest (and controversy) to card players, sports bettors, investors, hedge fund managers, and economists. Horse Racing; Sports; Strategy; Tools; Punting Stars. So if your getting 6/4 on an 1/1 shot your edge is 2. The course stages racing over distances up to 1850m, with 4 chutes on the back half of the track. The Kelly Criterion is comprised of two basic components. . Premier. 5. In the seminal paper [5], Kelly considered repeated betting on horse races. 55)-0. Here’s. Of course, the Kelly has also been adapted for other “bets,” including blackjack, sports betting, and playing the stock market. Betting 5000 times may be unrealistic for most. Sleep more. Put simply, the. He started life as data analyst in the digital marketing field before find his true calling in the world of Football and Horse Racing Betting. 1) Regardless of what you make the chance of the horse, 60%, 50%, 40% , 30% if the odds on offer are 4/1 your stake is 20 points. L. Essentially the formula gives the optimal size of bets in order to win as much as possible over time while reducing the risk of ruin. This type of situation is common in horse racing, where. 80 and subtract 0. 10. However, for any of those outcomes, there are only two outcomes to the gambler's bankroll: The gambler bet on the correct outcome of the team game. This type of situation is common in horse racing, where multiple types of bets are available for a. In particular, it maximizes the expected growth rate and the. 0 in decimals, or a 20% implied probability of winning) at the Cheltenham Hurdle. Football. To overcome the bookmaker's margin you need. Correspondence Address: Triq il-Kappillan Mifsud, St. Correspondence Address: Triq il-Kappillan Mifsud, St. For example, consider you are betting on a coin to land on heads at 2. I therefore recommend using the more sophisticated generalised Kelly Criterion wherever possible as it is superior to the simplified Kelly Criterion. T&Cs apply. All the more recently, the strategy has seen a renaissance, in response to claims that unbelievable investors Warren Buffett and. , -200 odds and shorter) because the Kelly Calculator struggles with “sure things. Betting 5000 times may be unrealistic for most. In such a case, the Kelly criterion suggests that if one were to go over 20% repeatedly on a low. Staked: 249pts Returns: 459. Horse Racing Tips: Let's have a disco in Wales with Ffos Las Sunday double; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Auteuil Racing Tips: Native's stamina the key to first Grade 1 success; Horse Racing. Most only know a simplified version. If the bet is successful, the bettor would win £36 for every £20 wagered. 20 or 20%. Six-year-olds have won 11 of the 17 renewals which is clearly, a significant trend. Completely Free Football Bet: Editor best bets including 18/1 Acca and 26/1 Bet Builder. RaceQuant is a startup specializing in consulting for horse race betting. No opt. The Kelly Criterion is comprised of two basic components. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, the bettor would calculate the optimal bet size as follows: f = (0. To be honest I have been successfully using the simple/naïve Kelly Criterion for years and haven’t bothered looking anywhere else. The formula was derived by J. 1 of the amount they have set aside for gambling purposes. Racing. Only Starman (Evens) and Harry Angel (6/4. He developed the formula to maximize the long-term growth rate of capital when making bets with a. , 2011), which. Golf. In this article, I explain how I think you should properly use the Kelly criterion as applied to long. The Kelly Criterion can be a great tool in the pocket of all sports bettors. Rugby World Cup Quick Hits: South Africa and New Zealand to serve up classic final. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: 9/4 Springwell Bay looks thrown in off 137 at Cheltenham Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Paddy Power Gold Cup can go to a closerFeatured Rugby. Systems like Martingale and Row of numbers use high level of progresion to make up for the punters. I think he was right. ”. For customers in the UK, TSE Malta LP is licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039561-R-319411-005. ) Of course, this begs the question: Why use the Kelly Criterion at all?The Kelly criterion, developed by John L. Dimitar Berbatov. These are bets where there is no one-to-one correspondence between the bets and the possible outcomes of the game. Example of the Kelly Criterion: Let’s say you have analyzed a game and determined that the underdogs have a 40% chance of winning, and their odds are +200 (3. KELLY CRITERION | Ed Thorp | Optimal Position Sizing For Stock TradingThe Kelly Criterion calculation was created by Ed Thorp and made specifically to beat t. Get a completely free horse racing multiple bet and horse racing tips from Tony Calvin and more plus expert insight from Paul Nicholls and Ryan Moore. 8 – 0. We denote the fractions as b2Rn, so b 0 and 1Tb= 1, where 1 is the vector with all In its simplest possible form, the Kelly Criterion states that, on an even money bet, the percentage of the bankroll to bet is: (Win probability x 2) - 1. Euro 2024. Kelly criterion as part of a horse racing system article any horse racing system must have a money management component built in this is of paramount importance without this component it is still possible to lose huge sums of money. 5pt EW) settled at BSP: +5. You are here: Home >> Beginner’s Guide >> The Kelly Criterion Once a decision is has been made to wager money on an event, the next decision is to choose how much of your account balance to wager. The Kelly Criterion was first published in 1956 by John L. This means that the. The calculator will tell you whether or not you should be betting and how much to stake. Premier League. Three are three outcomes to the team game: Team1 wins.